Recently, according to foreign media reports, data from the internationally authoritative research institution Forrester showed that global online retail sales are expected to increase from 4.4 trillion in 2023 to 6.8 trillion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.9%.
Forrester’s chief forecast analyst, said that the growth of online platforms, social e-commerce, live shopping, and DTC businesses will accelerate the growth of global online retail sales in the next five years. However, the maturity and growth opportunities of e-commerce vary by region.
In the United States, online retail sales are expected to reach 1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 2883 billion by 2028.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the online retail sales of major countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia, are expected to grow from 2.2 trillion in 2023 to 3.2 trillion in 2028. China will lead this growth, and both China and South Korea are expected to have online retail penetration rates exceeding 40% by 2028.
In six major Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, online retail sales reached 93 billion in 2023 and are expected to reach 193 billion by 2028, accounting for 17.4% of total retail sales. Indonesia has the highest online retail penetration rate, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to have annual growth rates exceeding 20% in the next five years.
In Western European countries (including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), online retail sales are expected to grow from 508 billion in 2023 to 773 billion in 2028, and online retail penetration will increase from 15% to 20%. The United Kingdom will continue to be the largest online retail market, followed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
In Eastern Europe, the online retail penetration rate is only half of that in Western Europe. Forrester predicts that the online retail sales of the five largest countries in Eastern Europe (Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary) will increase from 72 billion in 2023 to 126 billion in 2028, with Russia and Poland leading the region.
In Latin America, online retail sales in six countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile, will grow from 109 billion in 2023 to 192 billion in 2028.
Forrester said that despite the overall growth in e-commerce sales, 76% of global retail sales (i.e., 21.9trillion)in 2028 will still come from offline channels, of which the UnitedStates will account for4.2 trillion. Therefore, retailers should continue to invest in omni-channel strategies to provide seamless online and offline shopping experiences.